This line chart tracks the number of COVID-19 infections and recoveries by date as reported by the Galveston County Health District.


Media & Technology Director

Kevin joined The Daily News as a photojournalist in 2006. He has a Bachelor of Science in Criminal Justice and a minor in Photography from Texas State University. He lives in League City with his wife Ashley, a wedding photographer.

(3) comments

Susan Fennewald

Thanks for the graph. I much prefer actual data to exaggerated speculation!

Bailey Jones


Bailey Jones

A useful metric to keep track of is the % change from day to day. A 26% percent rise means the number doubles in 3 days. A 19% rise is doubling every 4 days. A 12% rise is doubling every 6 days. Plotting the Galveston case numbers, or the US case numbers, or the US death toll, all show the same trend - the % change, day to day, has a definite negative slope - the percentage increase day to day is decreasing.

For the number of cases, that trend may be due entirely to the fact that the number of tests that can be performed daily is increasing slower than the population of positives, but deaths are well categorized and not subject to the availability of test kits, so that's the number I put highest confidence in.

A week ago the US death rate was doubling every 3 days. If the trend holds, by Monday the rate will be down to doubling every 4 days, a week later down to doubling every 5 days - still exponentially exploding, but less so. Worldwide, numbers seems to plateau at doubling about every 6 days (increasing 12% per day). The Galveston data set is small, and noisy, and may change once the virus "takes off" in the Houston area, or once testing becomes more widely available, but for now, the rate of exponential growth is getting better, rather than worse. That's a hopeful sign.

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