After 168 days of updates, The Daily News is retiring this article and associated graphics.

Today the Galveston County Health District launched a new interactive reporting dashboard and discontinued sending the statistics used to keep our own graphics updated.

You will continue to find our latest COVID-19 reporting at this link: https://www.galvnews.com/coronavirus/












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(46) comments

Terri Abraham

Why didn't they include those 70 cases?

Gary Scoggin

Probably they came in too late or there is a statistical validation to be done. I assume they will be in Saturday’s numbers. We will see.

KevinMCox Staff
Kevin M. Cox

The 70 additional cases from The Resort in Texas City were included in today's GCHD statistics.

Dlorah Berry

Love the graphics!!! It’s nice to see the recovered numbers as well. Thank you Daily News staff for keeping us informed!!

Harvey Mueller

[thumbup]

Terri Abraham

They are nice. I'd also like it if they had a column that showed the numbers, by city, from the day before so you could see the change from the previous day easily.

KevinMCox Staff
Kevin M. Cox

Terri, please see the new chart added above, Galveston County COVID-19 Cases by City and Date, and let me know what you think. You can use the dropdown menu to select the city you would like to view and it will show the case count by date.

Terri Abraham

Kevin, thanks! That's just what I wanted.

KevinMCox Staff
Kevin M. Cox

Great, glad it worked for you Terri.

Ron Woody

Mr. Cox, If you have been playing along I am sure you know what I am going to ask. :)

Is there anyway you can show a chart of the number of tests given daily or number of daily results received? Either one will work.

Thanks!

KevinMCox Staff
Kevin M. Cox

Ron, sorry for the delay. I have added two new testing related charts to the article: Galveston County COVID-19 Testing and Galveston County COVID-19 Testing by Date.

Marilyn Swanson

Thanks for this info - any chance you could include population of the cities in a separate graph so one could see as a percentage.

KevinMCox Staff
Kevin M. Cox

Marilyn, sorry for the delay. I have added a new chart, Galveston County COVID-19 Cases per Capita, to the article.

Bailey Jones

US COVID deaths hit 8515 yesterday. For the past three days the rate on increase, day to day, has hovered about 18%. This means that the rate, which was doubling every 3 days, is now doubling every 4+ days.

If the trend continues, a week from now we'll be doubling every 6 days. At this rate, the death toll will be about 20,000 by Easter. As bad as that is, it's less than half of number of deaths we would expect if the death rate was still doubling every 3 days. That's good news - it indicates that the lockdown is having the desired effect and slowing the spread. Barring some explosion somewhere, the US death rate is on track to peak by the end of April. After that, we will see fewer deaths from day to day.

Wayne D Holt

The latest update (April 6, 2020) from Johns Hopkins puts the global total of virus related deaths at 70,482. That would include China, Italy, France, New York City, New Orleans and all the other hotspots. The 2016-2017 flu season is estimated by the CDC to have killed as many as 59,000 in the US alone. Do you remember being under medical martial law then? How about discussions promoting having to carry and show a certificate that you are virus free, as is being mentioned now? Meanwhile, 10,000,000 Americans are trying to figure out how they are going to eat, keep a roof over their heads and care for their children. Watch the narrative change as the damage from panic-driven decision making becomes too great to ignore. The disadvantaged are going to be paying the greatest price for what the fully employed politicians have wrought.

Wayne D Holt

Current Galveston Co. rate of death from Covid-19 is 0.02600 of those tested, which number is skewed higher than the assumed general population.

If the present death rate continues as infections fall, we will wind up with a rounding error for Covid-19 related deaths and likely lower than normal seasonal flu. On March 27, county officials said the virus was set to "explode" in our area. Do you see why you should keep your eye on the ball of what you are being told is a medical necessity?

After 9/11, we relinquished a vast swath of personal privacy and freedom to a bogus War on Terror. We are making the same panic-fueled mistakes in assuming there is no agenda behind this other than public health.

When you are willing to eviscerate the largest economy in the world by one-third of its GDP in the span of two weeks, and do it all for what is a bad seasonal flu, it is not hard to see either your judgement is seriously impaired or you have other goals in mind.

Wayne D Holt

The modelling used to justify the COVID-19 response has lost credibility. On 16th March the White House announced a “worst case” scenario of between 1.5 and 2.2 million deaths from COVID-19. Two weeks later on 31st March the “worst case” projections dropped 90% to between 100,000 and 240,000 deaths. Actual deaths from COVID-19 in the United States is currently 9,302. This figure represents 23% of the annual 40,000 morality in an average flu season and just over 15% of flu deaths in 201-2017. Based on EMPIRICAL EVIDENCE is there any legitimate course of action except to return the life of people and the nation’s economy to normality as soon as possible?

Harvey Mueller

Thank you GDN for this information. The charts and background info are very useful.

Bailey Jones

Last Sunday I posted "US COVID deaths hit 8515 yesterday. For the past three days the rate of increase, day to day, has hovered about 18%. This means that the rate, which was doubling every 3 days, is now doubling every 4+ days. If the trend continues, a week from now we'll be doubling every 6 days. At this rate, the death toll will be about 20,000 by Easter."

Today's toll is at least 20,872. (I say "at least" because the full count takes about a day to tabulate.) The rate of increase, day to day, has decreased to about 14% over the past week, which is a rate of doubling between 5 days (14.9%) and 6 days (12.2%). The rate of increase is still decreasing linearly, and is due to reach 10% (doubling every 7 days) in another week or so. It's reasonable, therefore, to expect that the death toll will hit 40,000 by next Sunday, the 19th. In another week, if rates hold, we can expect to hit the "flat" of the curve, when the day to day increase in deaths reaches 0%. By that time, perhaps 4,000 people will be dying every day. After that, the number of deaths each day is less than the day before.

To supply some context, since it's been really hard to judge the passing of time these days, three weeks ago the death toll was only 471. Today it's over 20,000. Three weeks ago, the day to day rate of increase was north of 26%, or doubling every three days. If that rate had held - in other words, if our social distancing measures hadn't slowed the spread of the virus - today we would be looking at over 60,000 deaths, and expecting 240,000 by the end of next week.

The death rate we see today reflects the actions we took 2-3 weeks ago. The death rate we will see at the end of the month will reflect the actions we take today. So, stay home as much as you can. Wear a mask when you must go out. Wash your hands. Stop the spread. The better we all do at this, the quicker we will get back to normal. The numbers clearly show that what we're doing is working.

And Happy Easter.

Terri Abraham

Why does it say 68 of Texas City's cases are linked to The Resort, when I'd read 80 cases from there before?

Bailey Jones

The trend over the last few weeks is holding. As predicted, the number of deaths has doubled in the last 7 days from 20,000 to 40,000. My spreadsheet still expects the rate of increase to flatten in the upcoming week, perhaps Friday or Saturday, and level off at, if I had to guess, about 3200-3500 deaths per day, and then begin to fall. That could put us at 60,000 dead by next weekend, or perhaps May 1st.

It looks like some restrictions will be removed around May 1st, so we can expect a bump in the death rate 3-4 weeks later - say, June 1st, then another and another, 3-4 weeks after each round of easing occurs. There will be two competing trends then - the death rate from cases spread before restrictions commenced will continue to fall, and the death rate from new cases due to the removal of restrictions will begin to rise.

The average death rate for for the first 19 days of April was 2000 per day, if we're conservative and take half that for the months of May and June, we could be looking at 120,000 deaths by July 4th. But this is just conjecture, no one knows what effect the reopening of the economy will have, or what the steady state burn rate of the virus will be as it makes its way through the rest of the population. More cases means more people develop immunity, which has the same effect as social distancing - it's a complicated equation.

BTW - COVID-19 is now the leading cause of death in the US, with last week's 20,000 deaths topping heart disease, which averages 12,626 deaths per week.

jules guillot

This is an excellent page - thanks for anyone involved in putting it together. Wish i could find a similar page for national statistics.

Ron Woody

Jules, Mr. Jones had provided this link a few weeks ago. It is from the University of Virginia. Johns Hopkins University also has a lot of good information and graphics. It just depends on what you would like to see.

https://nssac.bii.virginia.edu/covid-19/dashboard/

Take Care, Ron

KevinMCox Staff
Kevin M. Cox

Jules, we have some national statistics on this page that are updated daily by the Associated Press: https://www.galvnews.com/coronavirus/graphics/

Ron Woody

Keven, Thank you for you and perhaps others work on the graphs and the statistics. One thing I have been doing on a daily basis, but will not allow me to load into comments is track the testing and number of cases on the same page. It is not a productive graph when just using cumulative of both. Using a ratio of 10% of testing to number of cases gives an interesting look of what has happened in the County.

Thanks for your work keeping us all informed.

Bailey Jones

As expected, we're now over 60,000 US deaths. It looks to me that the curves for both new cases and deaths have flattened at about a 3.5% daily increase, which means doubling every 3 weeks or so, with an average of 2000 new deaths each day.

I can't tell whether the curves have leveled off, or are still decreasing. All things being equal they should continue to decrease, but with the country opening back up there's every reason to believe that they won't.

Texas, meanwhile, is at the same point that the US was at on March 24th - about 800 deaths and about 30,000 cases. The question is, will Texas follow the same curve as the whole US, or do something else? I'm going to guess something else. The Texas death toll is currently doubling every 15 days, so I would expect us to reach 1500 deaths by May 16th. If the Texas death rate flattens to doubling every 3 weeks, that would put the July 4th Texas total at 6,000.

The 2000 deaths per day US average has held steady for the past two weeks, so expect 70,000 - 75,000 total US deaths by next weekend.

Charlotte O'rourke

“League City has the most diagnosed cases among local cities in the county, with 650, and Galveston has the second most with 498 cases. “

Who couldn’t see that one coming? Local control should be left up to local leaders who can be held accountable by the people they serve.

Bailey Jones

It's fun to look back over these comments - "US COVID deaths hit 8515 yesterday". How quaint. Those were truly the good times.

Susan Smith

Still no covid "related" death in over 3 weeks. Hmm. Seems like that should be more newsworthy.

Bailey Jones

It's reported every day. Also reported, this week's doubling of hospitalizations.

Carlos Ponce

Galveston County deaths still holding at 40. Pray no more deaths occur.

Wayne D Holt

Here's a fitting postscript that will remain unseen by 99% of readers who have accepted the official narrative given by all the "experts." America, you have been swindled. And we are going to be paying for our credulous acceptance of this debacle for a generation, if we get off easy.

"A positive test result shows you may have antibodies from an infection with the virus that causes COVID-19. However, there is a chance a positive result means that you have antibodies from an infection with a virus from the same family of viruses (called coronaviruses), such as the one that causes the common cold." -- CDC website; June 20, 2020. https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/testing/serology-overview.html

Terri Abraham

Antibodies Wayne. A positive antibody test is different from testing positive for the disease.

Wayne D Holt

From the original story above: "As of Wednesday, 3,657 people had tested negative for antibodies and 257 had tested positive, according to the health district. A negative test result means the person hasn't had and doesn't currently have COVID-19, according to the health district. A positive test result means the person previously had or currently has COVID-19." Do you disagree with the health district?

The statistics have been hopelessly confused and conflated for both. There is indeed counting of antibody evidence as a positive and in fact, positives who give up their contact list had and are continuing to have their contact lists label as "Covid-19 cases."

Wayne D Holt

From The University of Rochester: Research into RNA structure and function provides key information for developing coronavirus treatments.

"While SARS-CoV-2 is a new coronavirus, “it likely replicates and functions similar to related coronaviruses that infect animals and humans,” says Douglas Anderson, an assistant professor of medicine in the Aab Cardiovascular Research Institute and a member of the Center for RNA Biology, who studies how RNA mutations can give rise to human disease."

Bailey Jones

I've seen this meme floating around facebook, Wayne. This is about the antibody test - the one that tells you if you've had COVID in the past. The test that tells you if you currently have COVID is an RNA test. Totally different, it cannot be confused by a cold.

Wayne D Holt

Bailey, as I recall the RNA tests for about 100 of the genetic markers for Covid-19, of which over 80% are shared with other corona virii while Covid_19 has something like 43,000 distinct genetic markers. I know it can be confused with other corona virii and while I don't know if rhinovirus is one of them, confusing the result with any of the others makes the results just as suspect.

Bailey Jones

https://www.politifact.com/factchecks/2020/jul/31/viral-image/common-cold-wont-cause-false-positive-covid-19-tes/ You need to let this one go, Wayne.

Terri Abraham

I just got back to check Wayne's response, and see Baily has already attempted to set him straight, so I will not have to. I did say attempted, because there are those who don't want to believe,

Wayne D Holt

Bailey and Terri, I just checked back to see if you checked back. If you read my remark you would know I said I wasn't sure about rhinovirus; Bailey's link was specific to that. I don't read Facebook so I wouldn't know what came from that source. Moreover, I don't believe you understand that there has never been an isolation of the "Covid-19" virus using the Koch Postulates that have been the standard for identifying a unique infectious agent since about 1860. What was done: a specific admixture of RNA/DNA strands was "identified" as being this virus. It was modeled and to my knowledge has not been observed in the wild. The markers chosen were about 100 out of 43,000 nucleotide markers. These do indeed share the same characteristics as a number of other viri. There has never been a peer reviewed study published that explains how this virus is a unique new combination of mutated or naturally occurring genetic materials. It is a genetic pattern that was arbitrarily decided was the profile of a virus that was never proven in the way we have proven every other viral example that is known.

I would suggest digging deeper. There are those who aren't content with what is broadcast by a thoroughly compromised corporate/government/media partnership.

Carlos Ponce

I heard Dr. Robin Armstrong this morning saying hydroxychloroquine is available over the counter in countries with low infection and morbidity rates. He said Big Pharma forced France to stop the OTC purchasing.

Terri Abraham

Doesn't Big Pharma manufacturer it?

Carlos Ponce

Because of it's age on the market (since 1955) it is relatively inexpensive. They can make $$$$$ by selling you a recently made product with patent protections.

Jose' Boix

Let's add more GCHD data; the Galveston Co. "Positivity Values" from 7/21/2020 to 8/5/2020: 7.8%, 7.8%, 7.8%, 7.8%, 7.9%, 7.9%, 7.8%, 7.9%, 7.9%, 7.9%, 7.9%, 7.9%, 8.0%, 8.0%, 8.0%, 8.0%. The percent folks tested positive of all the folks tested. Just another "statistic" to consider.

Carlos Ponce

Ohio Governor Mike DeWine tested "positive". Afterward he, his wife and staff took the PCR test and tested "negative". The first test was an antigen test. How many on our list of "positives" in this county and state were misdiagnosed? Are the numbers inflated because of false positives?

Joe Mancuso

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/08/07/us/covid-test-accuracy-governor-dewine-ohio.html

August 7, 2020

QUOTE

"A P.C.R. test is the test that is probably most familiar to Americans...Because the process amplifies the sequence, the test is highly accurate, but the results can take hours or days to process."

"But antigen tests are generally less sensitive and less accurate than the traditional nasal swab, laboratory test. Interestingly, antigen tests are more likely to produce false negatives — missing someone who has the virus — than false positives, the opposite of what appears to have happened to Mr. DeWine."

ENDQUOTE

https://www.fda.gov/consumers/consumer-updates/coronavirus-testing-basics

This content is current as of July 16, 2020

QUOTE

PCR test: "is typically highly accurate and usually does not need to be repeated."

Antigen test: "Positive results are usually highly accurate but negative results may need to be confirmed with a molecular test."

ENDQUOTE

So, it appears that P.C.R. tests are very accurate. Antigen tests less accurate and more likely to produce false negatives than false positives.

Which means that the number of positives is quite possibly higher that what is being reported.

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