GALVESTON

The Galveston County Health District on Thursday announced 24 new local cases of COVID-19. Total number of cases identified in the county is now 11,536. Of those, 985 cases are still considered active, according to the health district.

There were 104 new recoveries reported Thursday, bringing that total to 10,411.

To date, 140 people in Galveston County have died after being diagnosed with the virus, according to the health district.

Seventy-two people were in the hospital with the virus as of Wednesday, according to the health district.

Over the past week, there have been an average of 10.3 new cases of COVID-19 announced every day. The average number of new cases has decreased by 45.5 percent over the past two weeks, according to the health district.

As of Thursday, there were 320 active cases of COVID-19 in League City, 191 in Texas City and 139 in Galveston.

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(4) comments

Wayne D Holt

For those who wish to make a distinction between horrifying case count headlines and the actual survival rate of Covid-19 at the present time, this CDC update should be broadcast near and far.

New COVID-19 survival rates per CDC:

0-19: 99.997%

20-49: 99.98%

50-69: 99.5%

70 & over: 94.6%

For those under 70 years of age, Covid-19's very real impact has not been on their health but on their ability to earn a living, pay a mortgage and car note, educate their children away from the traditional school environment, and keep hope alive for the American Dream.

And now there's talk of reimposing lock-downs. Our own City Council voted to extend the emergency decree language until January of 2021. Only Councilman Hardcastle had the courage to vote against, saying the idea that Council should abdicate its actual function and avoid going on recorded votes was no longer acceptable.

Glance at those statistics above again. Does that look like anything that should reasonably be called an emergency?

Bailey Jones

As always, Wayne, context counts. If you're going to present data, it needs to be properly sourced, and correctly defined.

Regardless of what Fox News' TV doctors would have us believe, these numbers are not "the actual survival rate of Covid-19 at the present time". These numbers are from the CDCs COVID-19 Pandemic Planning Scenarios, a tool to "assist in assessment of resource needs as the pandemic progresses".

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/hcp/planning-scenarios.html

Five different scenarios are discussed. These numbers come from scenario 5 - "Parameter values for disease severity, viral transmissibility, and pre-symptomatic and asymptomatic disease transmission that represent the best estimate, based on the latest surveillance data and scientific knowledge. Parameter values are based on data received by CDC through August 8, 2020."

I'll grant you that these numbers are probably close to reality, but they come with the CDC's own caveat:

"The parameters in the scenarios:

Are estimates intended to support public health preparedness and planning.

Are not predictions of the expected effects of COVID-19.

Do not reflect the impact of any behavioral changes, social distancing, or other interventions."

The scenarios also include other useful information, for anyone who finds themselves or a loved one to be one of President Trump's "virtual nobodies":

Time from exposure to symptom onset - 6 days

Median number of days from symptom onset to hospitalization - 4 to 6 days

Median number of days of hospitalization among those not admitted to ICU - 3 to 6 days

Median number of days of hospitalization among those admitted to ICU - 11 to 14 days

Percent admitted to ICU among those hospitalized - 23.8% to 36.1%

Percent on mechanical ventilation among those hospitalized - 12% to 22.1%

Percent that die among those hospitalized - 2.4% to 26.6%

Median number of days of mechanical ventilation - 6 days

Median number of days from symptom onset to death - 13 to 17 days

And this interesting factoid - Median number of days from death to reporting - 19 to 21 days

(Where a range is given, these are age dependent values - see Table 2 in the link for the breakdown.)

Wayne D Holt

As always, well reasoned (Carlos may disagree [beam]) but I will just add the following. Everything the CDC has done to date has been based on the same process of projected impacts. In other words, there is no reason to discount this projection if we have been ready to accept every other CDC projection prior. It may be right, it may be wrong. God know the CDC has never met a Covid target that couldn't be moved around willy-nilly. But since it's from the CDC, we know we can rely on its rock solid assurance they have it nailed this time. I'm a believer (no emoticons for fingers crossed?)

Jose' Boix

Just consider this other look at "data" as posted by the Galv. Co. Health Distr. (GCHD). On 7/15 the County Percentivity was 7.55% with 31% of the estimated County population tested.

This trend rose to a peak - and crested - on 8/4 the County Percentivity was 8.00% and 35% of the population tested. The downtrend started on that day.

The most current data posted 9/25 shows the Percentivity at 7.28% with 49% of the County estimated population tested.

Percentivity is the % of those tested positive over the total tested.

It looks like that what we are all doing is being effective in managing the pandemic. Just my thoughts.

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