A broad low pressure area hovering over the Bay of Campeche in Mexico could bring heavy rainfall throughout the county later this week, according to the latest weather projections.
Forecasters are projecting an average of between 1.5 inches and 3 inches of rain for the large area of southeast Texas generally south of Interstate 10, but some areas could see more than that, said Nikki Hathaway, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service in League City.
Some areas near the coast might get brief, intense showers of 2 inches an hour, which could lead to localized street flooding, Hathaway said.
The National Hurricane Center is monitoring an area of showers and thunderstorms hovering over the Bay of Campeche, but circulation in the system, one of things that defines a tropical storm, is poorly defined and trends have it remaining disorganized, Hathaway said.
But the disturbance will still move up the eastern side of Mexico and into Texas and Louisiana over the next several days, Hathaway said.
Chances of rain increase significantly starting Tuesday afternoon and, by Wednesday and Thursday, much of Galveston County could see rainfall chances as high as 80 percent, she said.
The best chances of rain should move to the east of Interstate 45 by Thursday afternoon, and most of the storm should be east of the area by Friday, Hathaway said.
The disturbance could also push tides more than a foot above their normal height and increase the chances of coastal flooding during high tides Tuesday night through Thursday, according to current projections.
The 2019 Atlantic hurricane season began Saturday and runs through November.