A cold front stalled south of Galveston is keeping sunny skies and seasonal temperatures around. For a little while longer.

Gulf Surface Analysis

All this is going to change drastically, however, from Sunday through the middle of next week. The northern portion of a tropical wave is causing disorganized storm activity over Honduras and Belize this morning.

GOES Satellite

Of more interest to us is that the National Hurricane Center is now giving this system a 70% chance of developing over the coming five days as it moves into the southwest and western Gulf of Mexico.

Five-Day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook

Some models develop this system into a closed low somewhere along the northeastern Mexico coast or deep South Texas.

GFS Forecast map

GFS Forecast map

Weather Prediction Center forecast map

Weather Prediction Center forecast map

NCEP probability map for Tropical Cyclone Development

NCEP probability map for Tropical Cyclone Development

The good news is that wind shear and nearness to land “may” inhibit development. However, given the extremely warm Gulf water temperatures and the recent trends towards rapid intensification, it will be wise to monitor this system closely through the weekend and into next week.

The bad news is that we will be on the wet, northeastern side of this system regardless of its development. This, and an accompanying surge of deep tropical moisture from the south, raises the chances for excessive rainfall, especially near the coast. Gusty winds and rough Gulf waters are likely as well.

Precipitable Water Forecast Map for Monday

Precipitable Water Forecast Map for Monday

Five-day rainfall outlook from the Weather Prediction Center showing possible precipitation amounts in excess of five inches from today through Wednesday. This definitely bears watching!

120-Hour Day 1-5 QPF

Stan Blazyk is a life-long weather enthusiast, long-time Galveston resident and author of "A Century of Galveston Weather." He has written about weather for The Daily News for more than a decade.

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(3) comments

Bailey Jones

Wow - that is some significant rain. Can we get about half that spread out over a few days?

Carlos Ponce

Put your prayer request in.

Ted Gillis

Pray the weather away? That's how it works Carlos?

What if I say it Latin? Will that make a difference?

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