Although the two major global models (the American “GFS” and the European “ECMWF”) have come into somewhat closer alignment, much uncertainty remains about the details for the weather from late tomorrow night into Saturday evening. This is especially true with respect to amounts and timing of precipitation over that time period. These differences will be crucial to those planning big outdoor events this weekend, such as Octoberfest in Galveston.

The expected precipitation will be due to three factors, a low developing over Southeast Texas or near the coast, a surge of deep tropical moisture and a cold front moving in from the west. Rain should begin ahead of the front as early as late tomorrow into Friday as the deeper moisture moves into our area and the surface low pressure develops.

WPC Fronts/NDFD Weather Type

If the cold front moves through early (by Friday morning or early afternoon) then rainfall will tend to lighter and end sooner. If, however, the front is slower (moving through early Saturday) and tends to hang-up just off the coast, then rainfall could continue into Saturday. Also, if an upper-level low to the north and the resultant trough takes its time moving east, then clouds and some chance of precipitation could linger behind the front even into early Sunday. This could result in an increased chance of excessive rains (1-3 inches) near the coast.

24 Day 3 Quantitative Precipitation Forecast

24 Day 3 Quantitative Precipitation Forecast

Day 2 Excessive Rainfall Outlook
Day 3 Excessive Rainfall Outlook
72 Hour GFS

In addition, brisk southeast to east winds ahead of the front will result in elevated tides and dangerous rip currents over the next couple of days. Unfortunately, the high tides will result in less efficient drainage and another chance of flooding in low lying areas.

Coastal Hazard Message

At any rate, the models do agree that drier, cooler air will ultimately move in behind the front, bringing cool, windy weather for Saturday into Sunday.

Minimum Temperature Forecast

Stan Blazyk is a life-long weather enthusiast, long-time Galveston resident and author of "A Century of Galveston Weather." He has written about weather for The Daily News for more than a decade.

Recommended for you

(0) comments

Welcome to the discussion.

Keep it Clean. Please avoid obscene, vulgar, lewd, racist or sexually-oriented language.
Don't Threaten. Threats of harming another person will not be tolerated.
Be Truthful. Don't knowingly lie about anyone or anything.
Be Nice. No racism, sexism or any sort of -ism that is degrading to another person.
Be Proactive. Use the 'Report' link on each comment to let us know of abusive posts.
Share with Us. We'd love to hear eyewitness accounts, the history behind an article.

Thank you for Reading!

Please log in, or sign up for a new account and purchase a subscription to read or post comments.