Tropical Depression #3 has formed in the Bay of Campeche. It is generally expected by the National Hurricane Center to develop into Tropical Storm Chantal within 36-48 hours if it takes a northward track and doesn’t interact too much with the landmass of southern Mexico.

Tropical Depression 3
Tropical Storm-Force Wind Speed Probabilities

There is considerable uncertainty about where the storm will track after that due to a blocking upper-level high pressure ridge currently extending northward from Texas into the Plains and also based on a possibility that the system could drift back ashore over southern Mexico from the Bay of Campeche.

Current Upper-level map

Current Upper-level map

In other words, this likely to be slow-developing situation and will need to be monitored closely this week due to uncertainties about track, intensity and timing.

I will provide updates this week and beyond as we get additional insights into the fate of this depression.

By the way, Chantal may be a name familiar to many long-time residents of this area who may remember Hurricane Chantal in early August, 1989.

Hurricane Chantal, 1989

Hurricane Chantal, 1989

Stan Blazyk is a life-long weather enthusiast, long-time Galveston resident and author of "A Century of Galveston Weather." He has written about weather for The Daily News for more than a decade.

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(3) comments

Stan Blazyk Staff
Stan Blazyk

Want to share a clarification. The next storm will be named Cristobal, not Chantal, which doesn't appear again until 2025.

Bailey Jones

Let's hope that this Cristobal doesn't discover America.

Stan Blazyk Staff
Stan Blazyk

I share your sentiments!

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