Thunderstorms rolled across Galveston County on Tuesday and early Wednesday morning as predicted. Deep moisture, a long-wave trough to our west and a series of upper-level disturbances provided an ideal environment for active weather that should extend into the weekend. Rainfall amounts locally over the past 24-hours have generally averaged between 1 inch and 2 inches, though parts of Texas City were drenched with 2-4 inches of rain.

24 Hour Rainfall
Current upper-level map

Current upper-level map

Upper-level forecast map for early tomorrow

Upper-level forecast map for early tomorrow

Map showing atmospheric moisture content (precipitable water)

Map showing atmospheric moisture content (precipitable water)

Overall, another 1.5 or so inches might be possible across the area over the coming few days, while excessive rains of 3-5 inches might cause flooding around San Antonio and much of the Hill Country to the west.

72-Hour Day 1-3 QPF
SPC Thunderstorm Outlook

Conditions should improve by early next week as a weak cold front is expected to bring drier air to the region by Tuesday and Wednesday.

Fronts for 10/5/21

Meanwhile, the Tropics remain active as well. Major Hurricane Sam continues trekking north in the Atlantic. The good news is that it may stay to the east of Bermuda, sparing that island the brunt of the storm.

Hurricane Sam

To the southeast of Sam, a couple of more disturbances are found in the Tropical Atlantic between the African coast and South America. Disturbances that far south historically have a better chance of making it west to the Caribbean. The good news so far is that early models suggest a northward turn with these as well. In any case, we will have a long time to monitor them.

Five Day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook
AL90 Early Tracks

Stan Blazyk is a life-long weather enthusiast, long-time Galveston resident and author of "A Century of Galveston Weather." He has written about weather for The Daily News for more than a decade.

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