The upper-level low and surface trough in the Gulf of Mexico continues to drift slowly west towards the Texas coast, accompanied by a large pool of moisture. This situation is increasingly viewed by the National Weather Service and Weather Prediction Center as likely to produce heavy to excessive rains over Southeast Texas with the greatest risk being for Galveston and surrounding counties.

Surface Map
Upper-level map
Water Vapor Loop

Although the National Hurricane Center gives the area a 20% chance for tropical storm development, the threat of heavy precipitation over the next 1-3 days will be present, whether tropical storm development occurs or not. Currently, rain amounts of 8-12 inches are not out of the question and rains of 3-6 inches will be likely.

Storms Monday-Thursday
Day 3 Excessive Rainfall Outlook

7-Day Precipitation Outlook

In addition, winds gusting to 31-mph are resulting in Gulf water levels running 1-2 feet above normal in Galveston and producing dangerous rip tides along the coast. The combination of higher water levels and excessive rain will enhance localized flooding throughout the period.

Tides & Currents: Galveston Pier 21

Stan Blazyk is a life-long weather enthusiast, long-time Galveston resident and author of "A Century of Galveston Weather." He has written about weather for The Daily News for more than a decade.

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