As I suggested in my blog on Monday, an area of low pressure in the southwest Caribbean was upgraded to Tropical Depression 16 by the National Hurricane Center.

The depression is likely to become Tropical Storm Nate and intensity projections suggest that it will become a Category 1 hurricane before a likely landfall somewhere along the northern Gulf Coast.

The system is expected to track initially north-northwest with a gradual turn to the north or northeast by this weekend it passes through a gap between high pressure to the east and high pressure to the west.

“If” this track materializes, impacts here will be minimal, though surfers are likely to find some nice breakers by this weekend and drier air may be pulled into our area as winds here shift to the north or northwest on the back side of the system.

Despite this rather favorable (for us) forecast track, it is wise to keep an eye on this system as any storm in the Gulf of Mexico could pose an eventual threat to the northwest Gulf of Mexico. Certainly this season, has provided more than its share of unusual storm tracks.

So my advice is to enjoy what most likely will be a very nice weekend for us weather-wise, but continue to monitor advisories from the National Hurricane Center and the local National Weather Service Office.

Weather Blogger

Stan Blazyk is a life-long weather enthusiast, long-time Galveston resident and author of "A Century of Galveston Weather." He has written the weather blog for the Galveston County Daily News for more than a decade.

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