An upper-level high pressure ridge currently stretching northwestward from Texas to the Pacific Northwest will settle over Texas in the coming few days, leading to hot temperatures, sunny skies and generally dry conditions for Texas and Galveston County.

Hot for the next 7 days
WPC Day 3 500MB Forecast

7 Day precipitation outlook

The bad news is that dry, hot conditions could persist well into mid-August.

8-14 Day Temperature Probability Outlook

8-14 Day Temperature Probability Outlook

8-14 Day Precipitation Probability Outlook

8-14 Day Precipitation Probability Outlook

On the other hand, the Tropical Atlantic Basin is remaining quiet at this time. Part of the reason for this lull in activity is the presence of dry, Saharan air (the Saharan Air Layer) at both the mid and low levels over much of the east and central Atlantic Basin. This suppresses storm formation and provides an inhospitable environment for the tropical systems tracking west out of Africa.

Saharan Air Layer

Saharan Air Layer

Low Level moisture levels in the Atlantic

Low Level moisture levels in the Atlantic

While this is encouraging and intermediate term forecast models suggest low chances of tropical development over the coming two weeks. On the other hand, we are entering the most active 30-day period of the Hurricane Season in the Atlantic. So, it is certainly not time to get complacent. In addition, this type of scenario can result in weak tropical waves migrating into the Gulf of Mexico or Caribbean Sea and then rapidly developing over the warmer than normal sea surface temperatures in those regions. Needless to say, I will be watching closely to monitor for that possibility.

Stan Blazyk is a life-long weather enthusiast, long-time Galveston resident and author of "A Century of Galveston Weather." He has written about weather for The Daily News for more than a decade.

(0) comments

Welcome to the discussion.

Keep it Clean. Please avoid obscene, vulgar, lewd, racist or sexually-oriented language.
PLEASE TURN OFF YOUR CAPS LOCK.
Don't Threaten. Threats of harming another person will not be tolerated.
Be Truthful. Don't knowingly lie about anyone or anything.
Be Nice. No racism, sexism or any sort of -ism that is degrading to another person.
Be Proactive. Use the 'Report' link on each comment to let us know of abusive posts.
Share with Us. We'd love to hear eyewitness accounts, the history behind an article.

Thank you for Reading!

Please log in, or sign up for a new account and purchase a subscription to read or post comments.