April was exceedingly pleasant in Galveston County with relatively cool temperatures, plenty of sunshine and fairly low humidity levels. What also distinguished April weather it had a cooler monthly average temperature than March; a circumstance so unusual that we have to go back to 1938 to find another April that was cooler on average than the preceding March.
Even more surprising, the lowest temperature in April was cooler than the lowest temperature recorded for March and the warmest temperature observed in March was warmer than the warmest for April — occurrences so rare that I could not find any precedents checking back to 1900.
Even though it is May and not yet officially a part of the Atlantic hurricane season, there are some signs that we could be off to an early start with tropical weather. A surface low, interacting with an upper-level low over the eastern Gulf of Mexico, is given a 30 percent chance of developing into a tropical or sub-tropical system over the coming two days as it drifts north in the general direction of the Florida Panhandle and a 40 percent chance over the coming five days. High pressure over our area is likely to keep this feature well to the east of Galveston County with little to no impacts locally.
Looking a little further ahead and in the more speculative realm, the latest GFS model is suggesting tropical development in the northwest Caribbean in about 10 days. This morning’s European model also has begun to pick up on disturbed weather in that region at about the same time.
While, forecasts this far out are likely to change, nevertheless they are a reminder that the hurricane season is fast approaching and that now is the time to do some planning for the coming season.