The weather outlook for the weekend is mixed for Galveston County with a fairly good chance of rain between now and Saturday night, but with drier conditions moving in by Sunday or Monday. A low pressure trough nosing into Oklahoma and North Texas combined with a weak frontal boundary across North Texas should be sufficient to produce rain, possibly heavy rain, over areas north and west of the Houston area.
Although the best chances and heaviest amounts of rain will be over parts of North and Central Texas over the weekend, an influx of deeper moisture will ramp up our chances of precipitation tonight through tomorrow; though excessively heavy rains will likely avoid the local area.
By the way, along with the drier conditions on Sunday and Monday, we can expect to see another round of Saharan dust reach our area. This has just not been a good year for those with allergies and/or breathing problems!
On the tropical weather scene, the National Hurricane Center has lowered its estimate of the number of named storms likely this year. In their analysis, there is a 60% chance of receiving a below number of named storms this season, a 30% chance of a normal number and only a 10% chance of having more storms than in the average season. This was not unexpected, given the cooler than normal sea surface temperatures over much of the Tropical Atlantic and eastern Caribbean Sea.
There is, however, one disturbance midway between Africa and the Lesser Antilles that does have a 20% chance of developing over the coming five days. The good news is that it is not currently expected to survive once it encounters an area of high wind shear further to the west.