Tuesday's storms in Galveston County caught many by surprise as up to 2 ½ inches or rain soaked Galveston Island and the eastern half of the county. Meanwhile, the western half of the county generally received from ½ inch to 1 ½ inch of rain from the storms.
While the rain was not a total surprise to most forecasters (I set rain probabilities at 70-80 percent), the amounts were surprising and did exceed what the models were suggesting. The main factor was the way the storms moved slowly from west to east, allowing for heavier amounts than had been anticipated.
On Wednesday, high pressure was beginning to reassert itself over the region, though the remains of a weak trough are helping storms to develop over inland areas near the sea breeze front.
Moisture levels in the atmosphere should also decrease as the high pressure builds back, leading to more sunshine and hotter temperatures as we move through the last half of this week.
Looking further ahead, rain chances are likely to increase again this weekend as an upper-level low pressure trough moves east across the Gulf into Texas. Initially, we will be on the west, or drier, side of this feature, but as it moves farther inland, moisture levels will increase along with the probability of more showers and thunderstorms.
What is intriguing about this outlook is that there is reason to believe that wetter than normal could prevail through July 4, as high pressure retreats to the east, keeping a weak trough and deeper tropical moisture around. It is a little too far out in time to tell whether this will hamper Fourth of July activities, but certainly rain prospects will remain somewhat elevated along the coast through much of next week.