Sometimes the weather outlook is clear cut and fairly easy to predict. Other times, it can appear muddled with many alternative outcomes and few obvious conclusions. Most people, and certainly most forecasters, prefer to have a high level of confidence when projecting future outcomes. Ambiguity and confusion is not the forecasters’ friend in any endeavor.

Unfortunately, we are in a situation where a lot of “ifs’ present themselves when trying to determine exactly what weather we will have over the next week or two. We are in a pattern where a few small changes can result in very different outcomes locally.

Certainly, the heat is back on us with plenty of sun and drier conditions as high pressure again dominates our weather.

Heat Advisory For Tuesday

So while rain chances have diminished, some shower and thunderstorm activity cannot be ruled out completely over the next 2-3 days. First, a weak upper-level low over the western Gulf of Mexico might lead to scattered showers or thunderstorms over the next couple of days. In addition, a weak cold front sagging south over North Texas may set off thunderstorms that could creep south into our area from tonight through Thursday, with the front eventually stalling near the coast before slowly dissipating.

WPC Fronts

To further complicate matters, a weak mid to upper-level low and trough should move west across the Gulf of Mexico towards the northern Mexican coast. This could bring an influx of moisture and some additional rains over this weekend into Labor Day. While most of the precipitation with the first scenario will be to our north and with the second may be focused to our south and east, we cannot rule out some wet weather here as well.

144-h Fcst

24 Hour Rainfall Forecasts

Gravitating to the Tropics, it generally appears as though Tropical Storm Dorian will stay well to the east of us and most models suggest that it will impact Florida and possibly meander somewhat westward after landfall over the Florida Panhandle or south Georgia, However, a couple of models still stubbornly try to send it further west. If this were to occur then our situation might drastically change. That is unlikely, but still cannot be ruled out completely.

Tropical Storm Dorian

Finally, since I am worrying about “ifs”, the latest GFS (American model) shows high pressure setting up over the Southeastern U.S. by the second weekend of September. This pattern tends to foster a westward movement of tropical systems into the Gulf of Mexico and will be occurring about the same time that the eastern Atlantic is expected to become more conducive for tropical development.

Global Tropical Hazards and Benefits Outlook

The good news is that any forecasts that far ahead are highly speculative, so you can leave the worrying to me for now. There will be plenty of time to see if this pans out or morphs into something different as we move into September and, hopefully, I will come back with a completely different scenario in a few days.

Stan Blazyk is a life-long weather enthusiast, long-time Galveston resident and author of "A Century of Galveston Weather." He has written about weather for The Daily News for more than a decade.

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(2) comments

Ray Hensarling

Thank you Stan. You are very good at explaining the weather situation so that we amateurs can understand it. Galveston is very fortunate to have you.

Ray Hensarling

Stan Blazyk Staff
Stan Blazyk

Thanks, Ray. By the way, the intermediate (2 week) outlook from GFS has moved the high a little further east, which would decrease our risk a little from storms coming across the Atlantic.....but still far too soon to I will keep an eye on this factor as we move into September.

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