At 10 am, the National Hurricane Center announced that a tropical cyclone is likely to form in the northern Gulf of Mexico and may present a threat to Louisiana or the Upper-Texas coast. At that time, the system was centered near 25.8 N and 86.4 W., or about 170 miles south of the mouth of the Mississippi River. Sustained winds were 30-mph and central barometric pressure was 1011 MB (29.86”). The disturbance was moving to the west-southwest at 8-mph.

Potential Tropical Cyclone Two

Although most models project a landfall over Louisiana with the system turning north prior to reaching the Texas coast, it would take very little deviation in its track to directly impact the Texas coast. Therefore, it will be important to monitor updates and forecasts from the National Hurricane Center and the Houston-Galveston National Weather Service. In addition, I will provide updated information when it is available.

SPC Mesoscale Analysis

SPC Mesoscale Analysis

Early-cycle track guidance

Stan Blazyk is a life-long weather enthusiast, long-time Galveston resident and author of "A Century of Galveston Weather." He has written about weather for The Daily News for more than a decade.

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