An influx of deep tropical moisture and an upper-level low expected to move east across Texas will bring a chance of heavy rain to much of the area. Upper-level lows tend to create very unstable conditions aloft and when this interacts with low level moisture and daytime heating, heavy rain becomes a distinct threat.

Precipitable water map showing overall moisture content over our region on Saturday

Precipitable water map showing overall moisture content over our region on Saturday.

Upper-level low over Texas and developing tropical system east of Florida on Sunday.

Upper-level low over Texas and developing tropical system east of Florida on Sunday.

Situations involving upper-level lows are very difficult to forecast, nevertheless it seems certain that some areas to our north and west will receive 2 or more inches of rain this weekend. So far, amounts in Galveston County appear to be somewhat lighter, but still the latest models are suggesting most, if not all, of Galveston County will receive 1 inch or more from Saturday into Monday.

Heavy Rain Possible Saturday
24-Hour Day 3 QPF

Certainly, those traveling to our north and west need to be prepared for excessive rainfall.

Meanwhile, it appears as though the 2020 Hurricane Season will be off to an early start and we may have Tropical or Sub-Tropical Storm Arthur by this weekend. Currently, the National Hurricane Center gives the system a 70% chance for developing.

Five-Day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook
Storm Track

Fortunately, any system that does develop will likely move into the Atlantic. Still, it should be a reminder that Hurricane Season is just around the corner and now is a good time to think about how you will respond to any hurricane threat.

Stan Blazyk is a life-long weather enthusiast, long-time Galveston resident and author of "A Century of Galveston Weather." He has written about weather for The Daily News for more than a decade.

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