At 10 am CDT, the National Hurricane Service upgraded the disturbance in the southern Gulf of Mexico and a Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for Galveston County and the Upper-Texas coast.

Tropical Storm Nicholas
GOES 16

Continental US - Clean Longwave Window - IR

Tropical Storm force winds could arrive along the upper-Texas coast as early as tomorrow evening

Tropical-Storm-Force Wind Speed Probabilities
Earliest Reasonable Arrival Time of Tropical-Storm-Force Winds

Initial projections suggest that Nicholas could intensify to a strong tropical storm by late Monday or early Tuesday with 65-mph sustained winds near and east of the center. While conditions locally will be very dependent upon the exact track of the storm and how much intensification occurs, the National Hurricane Center does say that: “There is the possibility of life-threatening storm surge along the coast of Texas from the Mouth of the Rio Grande to High Island. Residents in these areas should follow any advice given by local officials”.

Peak Surge Forecast
Flash Flood Risk

Currently tides are running close to 1 foot higher than normal, and we can expect these to steadily increase over the coming 24-48 hours. Coastal flooding will be a potential hazard along with extremely heavy rains, potentially more than 5-7 inches.

72-Hour Day 1-3 QPF

As there are many unknowns with the storm at this point, it will be wise to pay close attention to statements from the Houston-Galveston National Weather Service Office and the National Hurricane Center. I will provide updates as warranted.

Stan Blazyk is a life-long weather enthusiast, long-time Galveston resident and author of "A Century of Galveston Weather." He has written about weather for The Daily News for more than a decade.

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(2) comments

C. Patterson

Don't forget to check on your elderly neighbors !

Bailey Jones

And make sure your street drains are clear. If any of your "weekender" neighbors have left their trash cans out, pull them up into the yard so they don't block the flow of water near the curb - or worse, get tumped over by floodwater. Same for bags of lawn clippings - get them up out of the street.

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