With many weekend events planned, including the second week end of Mardi Gras, there is plenty of interest in what the weather will bring for the next five to seven days.

While forecasters can paint a broad brush on how our weather will be through this weekend into early next week, there are enough differences in the major models with respect to timing and evolution of subtle upper-level features to cast some uncertainty on the outlook for any particular day.

So, going with the more generic approach, here is a general idea of what we can expect between now and next Tuesday. First, milder weather and a decrease in rain chances is in the picture for today, though a few light showers and the persistence of sea fog cannot be completely ruled out today as a stationary frontal boundary lingers off the Texas coast.

We may see some increase in rain chances Thursday, Thursday night or Friday as a fairly weak push of cooler air reaches the coast. This should lead to slightly cooler temperatures for Friday morning. The front will quickly dissipate during the day Friday, leading to mild conditions on Saturday with the probable return of sea fog. Mild weather may persist into Sunday, if the latest model forecasts are correct.

We will see a drastic change to colder weather on Sunday afternoon into early Monday (depending on the timing) as a strong Canadian cold front moves into the Plains and pushes off the Texas coast. This will lead to a renewed chance of rain (though precipitation amounts will not be excessive) along with windy and chilly weather to begin the new week.

The front could mean low temperatures in the upper 30s by Monday morning in Houston and northwest Galveston County and high temperatures in the low 50s for Tuesday.

Freezing temperatures, however, seem unlikely for Galveston County and areas near the coast.

Overall it is safe to say that the outlook for events this weekend is not as dire as it appeared a couple of days ago, as most models are holding off on the major push of cold air until Sunday. Unfortunately, it does look as though conditions may be uncomfortably cold for the Fat Tuesday Parade in Galveston.

Stan Blazyk is a life-long weather enthusiast, long-time Galveston resident and author of "A Century of Galveston Weather." He has written about weather for The Daily News for more than a decade.

(4) comments

Jarvis Buckley

Thank you I follow you faithfully & you have a better track record than those tv meteorologists.

Stan Blazyk Staff
Stan Blazyk

Thanks for the compliment, Jarvis.

mark niles

I find the TV meteorologists focus more on the Houston area, the coastal regions are given less emphasis. The weather along the coast can be quite a bit different from Houston, especially this time of year with the fog and wobbly frontal activity.

George Croix

Might rain.
Might not.
That's pretty much the typical weather forecast.

Stan beats that all to heck and gone......[beam]

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