I think that forecasters are going to get whiplash trying to tease out what Tropical Storms Marco and Laura are going to do and how that will impact Southeast Texas. The good news (for us) is that Marco will likely make landfall over Southeast Louisiana as a Category 1 hurricane.

TS Marco cone

Marco then will turn west in response to high pressure building in from the north and east. This turn may bring some needed rain to the areas of the County that have missed out recently as deep Gulf moisture flows north into the slowly dissipating system over East Texas.

24 Hour Day 3 QPF

However, the big question and concern for residents of Galveston and surrounding counties is what will become of Tropical Storm Laura as it nears the northern Gulf coast as a projected Category 2 hurricane on Wednesday. This morning’s models have shifted further west with a couple of models depicting landfall near Galveston or near Sabine Pass (much as Hurricane Rita did in 2005, prompting a massive and chaotic evacuation of the Galveston-Houston area). This change is reflected in the latest 10 am Advisory from the National Hurricane Center, which puts Galveston County well within the zone of potential impact.

TS Laura cone
Storm 13 Tracks

Galveston and the west shore of the Bay now have a 60% plus probability of having Tropical Storm force winds from Laura and a greater than 10% chance of experiencing hurricane force winds.

TS wind probabilities
Hurricane Force Winds

While there continues to be a fair amount of uncertainty with Laura especially, there is enough evidence that Galveston County residents need to take this threat seriously and prepare for the possibility of tropical storm or even hurricane conditions by the middle of this week. Additional information will be issued by the Houston-Galveston Weather Service Office and the National Hurricane Center as this situation develops. And, of course, I will try to keep everyone up to date with the latest forecasts.

Stan Blazyk is a life-long weather enthusiast, long-time Galveston resident and author of "A Century of Galveston Weather." He has written about weather for The Daily News for more than a decade.

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(4) comments

Michael Gaertner

Stan, we are so lucky to have you! The TV stations tend to sensationalize the storms. You always seem to have an informed, measured take on the weather and help us to know what might happen and why.

You remind me of my dad who was an accomplished meteorologist with the Air Force for many years.

Ted Gillis

I have precuts for the house; but not for the garage apartment next door; so yesterday morning after a trip to the local coffee shop I decided to go to the lumber yard and get six sheets of 1/2 inch and a box of deck screws. The bill was over $200.00. I just about choked on my latte!

Carlos Ponce

"six sheets of 1/2 inch and a box of deck screws. The bill was over $200.00" That's a good price. Did you get CDX? Home Depot (Alvin) has 1/2 inch CDX for $35.57 a sheet. I've seen the price higher in the past.

Ted Gillis

Yes, 1/2 CDX. I went to Sutherland’s in Dickinson. $29.39 a sheet. I guess I should feel better, but I still have a coffee stain on my shirt.

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