Day 1-3 Quantitative Precipitation Outlook

Day 1-3 Quantitative Precipitation Outlook

The National Weather Service has issued a Flash Flood Watch for Galveston County and surrounding areas from tonight through early Thursday morning as a surge of deep tropical moisture associated with the tropical disturbance in the southwest Gulf of Mexico moves slowly northwest. Locally heavy rains with brief downpours of 2-3 inches an hour will be possible.

Flash Flood Watch

In addition, a Hazardous Weather Outlook is in effect for Wednesday with elevated tide levels, weak, short-lived waterspouts and tornadoes and dangerous rip tides possible from Wednesday through early Thursday.

Hazardous Weather Outlook

Although the chances of an organized tropical cyclone have decreased, partly due to high wind shear levels over the northern Gulf of Mexico, development or lack of development will likely have little effect on impacts locally. Extremely moist air and favorable jet stream dynamics will create a very unstable atmosphere, hence, the likelihood for locally heavy rains. Precipitable Water Values (a good measure of atmospheric moisture content) in excess of 2.50 inches (much above normal) will provide the moisture needed to produce tropical downpours.

GOES-East - Sector view: Gulf of Mexico - GeoColor

Short Range Ensemble Forecast (SREF) Products

In other words, it will be wise to monitor local conditions and weather updates until this system moves off to the northeast. On the good news side, sunny, warm weather is likely by this weekend!

Stan Blazyk is a life-long weather enthusiast, long-time Galveston resident and author of "A Century of Galveston Weather." He has written about weather for The Daily News for more than a decade.

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