An upper-level low pressure trough digging southwestward from the Midwest and Tennessee Valley region into Texas, a summer-time cold front expected to near the coast by tomorrow, along with ample moisture and daytime heating should bring an increase in shower and thunderstorm activity for much of this week.

Current upper-level map

Current upper-level map

Surface forecast map for Tuesday

Surface forecast map for Tuesday

Rainfall totals of 1-2 inches or more are expected in much of the county with a slight chance for excessive rains of 3 inches mostly north of our area.

Excessive Rainfall Outlook
Current radar loop

Current radar loop

Thursday forecast map

Thursday forecast map

3-day rainfall total forecast map

3-day rainfall total forecast map

The good news is that an upper-level low expected to develop over Texas should shift westward while high pressure builds in from the east, leading to more sunshine and limited precipitation for much of the weekend.

Saturday-Sunday precipitation forecast map

Saturday-Sunday precipitation forecast map

Also on the good side, the Tropical Atlantic Basin remains quiet and the intermediate (14-16 day) forecast models suggest that we may finish the month without any significant tropical systems impacting our area.

On a more sober note, the July 8 season forecast from the Tropical Meteorology Project at Colorado State is predicting a busier than average season with a significant uptick in storm development in August and September. In other words, enjoy the lull while we can.

Stan Blazyk is a life-long weather enthusiast, long-time Galveston resident and author of "A Century of Galveston Weather." He has written about weather for The Daily News for more than a decade.

Recommended for you

(0) comments

Welcome to the discussion.

Real Names required. No pseudonyms or partial names allowed. Stand behind what you post.
Keep it Clean. Please avoid obscene, vulgar, lewd, racist or sexually-oriented language.
Don't Threaten. Threats of harming another person will not be tolerated.
Be Truthful. Don't knowingly lie about anyone or anything.
Be Nice. No racism, sexism or any sort of -ism that is degrading to another person.
Be Proactive. Use the 'Report' link on each comment to let us know of abusive posts.

Thank you for reading!

Please log in, or sign up for a new account and purchase a subscription to read or post comments.