At 4 am CDT this morning, Tropical Storm Fred was headed northward in the eastern Gulf of Mexico towards the Florida Panhandle.

Tropical Storm Fred

At the same time, a weakened Tropical Depression Grace was moving west-northwestward just south of Hispaniola. Unfortunately, Grace is still expected to bring torrential rains and flash flooding to already stricken Haiti.

Tropical Depression Grace

Meanwhile, forecast trends are increasingly hinting that Grace, which yesterday, was expected to head northwestward in the general direction of the northwest Gulf of Mexico, may take a more westerly track which would take the storm ashore in Mexico, well south of the Upper-Texas coast.

Forecast track model array

Forecast track model array

Day 5 Navgem model outlook

Day 5 Navgem model outlook

What “may” help us avoid significant impact is a ridge of high pressure building west across the northern Gulf of Mexico to Texas. This would tend to drive Grace westward and help suppress any northward turn with the system.

WPC Day 5 500 MB Forecast

The down-side of this may be continued hot weather through this coming weekend. High temperatures yesterday reached 93 degrees in both Galveston and League City and could exceed that by this weekend if current trends hold.

Maximum Temperature Forecast

Nevertheless, there is some uncertainty with these forecasts. Any changes in the outlook could result in more significant impacts in our area. So the adage remains: “stay informed and stay prepared” and continue to monitor any changes in the outlook as we move through this week.

Stan Blazyk is a life-long weather enthusiast, long-time Galveston resident and author of "A Century of Galveston Weather." He has written about weather for The Daily News for more than a decade.

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(2) comments

Bailey Jones

Catching the edge of a tropical depression would be a nice remedy for my topical depression.

Stan Blazyk Staff
Stan Blazyk


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