This morning as I walked the dogs, the long shadows, sunny skies, low humidity levels and relatively cool temperatures gave me my first “touch” of autumn. Morning lows across the County ranged from 79 degrees on the Island to the low-70’s in parts of League City and Friendswood, while the relative humidity dropped to 58% early this morning at Scholes Field in Galveston.

The pleasant weather is the result of a weak cold front that has drifted off the Texas coast allowing drier and slightly cooler air to flow into our area.

Current weather map

Current weather map

The good news is that another weak cold front is expected to pass through the area by Thursday bringing a reinforcing flow of dry, somewhat cooler air.

Thursday forecast weather map

Thursday forecast weather map

Day 3 Minimum Temperature

Meanwhile, a disturbance in the southwest Gulf of Mexico is given a 30% chance of developing before in makes landfall somewhere over Florida. Fortunately, unfavorable upper-level winds make it unlikely that much intensification will occur before it moves ashore. “If” the system behaves as expected little impact is likely in our area.

Five-Day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook
GOES East 13

Looking further ahead, an easterly wave and mid-level trough, expected to move into the western Gulf of Mexico and/or the Texas coast early next week could bring increasing rain chances to our area as moisture levels increase.

Fronts
24-Hour Day 6 QPF

At this point in time, prospects for any significant development appear relatively low. However, we should have plenty of time to monitor any changes in the overall outlook.

TC Probability

Meanwhile, I intend to enjoy our early touch of autumn!

Stan Blazyk is a life-long weather enthusiast, long-time Galveston resident and author of "A Century of Galveston Weather." He has written about weather for The Daily News for more than a decade.

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(2) comments

Bailey Jones

I'll take somewhat cooler and a chance of rain!

George Croix

Ya done good today, Stan. My 6 solid hours of mowing and trimming and misc. yard work at over 10 degrees cooler (or 20) was much more enjoyable….only about a 3 on the 1 to 10 Misery Scale vs the usual 9+…..

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