A few light showers crept into southern Galveston County early this morning, dropping light amounts of precipitation with rain totals ranging from 0.03” at Scholes Field and 0.02" in mid-Galveston to 0.01” near Tiki Island.

There is a chance of some rain by mid-week as a weak cold front drifts into Texas before stalling north of our area and low pressure moves east across the central Plains. Another slight chance for some precipitation will appear this weekend as a second cold front dips south to the Texas coast, but overall rainfall amounts are again expected to be light from these events, generally ranging from around ¼ inch or less over the County.

Upper-level forecast map for mid-week

Upper-level forecast map for mid-week

Surface forecast map for mid-week

Surface forecast map for mid-week

Precipitation outlook for Wednesday and Thursday

Precipitation outlook for Wednesday and Thursday

Surface forecast map for Saturday

Surface forecast map for Saturday

Precipitation outlook for Thursday through Saturday

Precipitation outlook for Thursday through Saturday

With rainfall totals since January 1 running 6 ½ inches below normal at Scholes Field in Galveston and 5 ½ inches below at League City, the area may be at risk for increased drought if we fail to get significant rainfall over the next couple of weeks. The extreme drought over the Southwestern U.S. has steadily inched west across Texas and is gradually impacting soil moisture over our area.

Drought Monitor

Calculated Soil Moisture Anomaly

With longer days, warmer temperatures and increased evaporation levels, drought conditions could rapidly intensify if we end up with a warm dry April and May.

Current projections call for milder and drier conditions through the middle of next week.

6-10 Day Temperature Probability Outlook
6-10 Day Precipitation Probability Outlook

There are early indications that our precipitation chances may swing back closer to normal by late next week and next weekend, even if warm than normal temperatures continue. This would be welcome for those nursing yards and gardens back to health following the February deep freeze!

8-14 Day Temperature Probability Outlook
8-14 Day Precipitation Probability Outlook

Stan Blazyk is a life-long weather enthusiast, long-time Galveston resident and author of "A Century of Galveston Weather." He has written about weather for The Daily News for more than a decade.

Recommended for you

(0) comments

Welcome to the discussion.

Real Names required. No pseudonyms or partial names allowed. Stand behind what you post.
Keep it Clean. Please avoid obscene, vulgar, lewd, racist or sexually-oriented language.
Don't Threaten. Threats of harming another person will not be tolerated.
Be Truthful. Don't knowingly lie about anyone or anything.
Be Nice. No racism, sexism or any sort of -ism that is degrading to another person.
Be Proactive. Use the 'Report' link on each comment to let us know of abusive posts.

Thank you for reading!

Please log in, or sign up for a new account and purchase a subscription to read or post comments.