Mild mornings and warm temperatures in the mid-80’s continue across Galveston County this week. So far, temperatures are running 2.2° above normal for October in Galveston and 4.3° above in League City.

Looking ahead there is a change in the air. First, a weak cold front should move off the coast by late, bringing a chance of thundershowers and slightly cooler, less humid conditions for Saturday.

WPC Day 3 SFC PROG
Day 3 Min Temp

A second, stronger cold front may reach the coast by sometime on Tuesday. Unfortunately, the models are conflicted on both the timing of a frontal passage and how deeply the cold air will push into Southeast Texas. The GFS model tends to depict a robust push of much cooler air by Tuesday, while the European and a couple of other models are slower with the frontal arrival and how much of the chilly air will push into our area.

WPC DAY 7 SFC PROG

The GFS model has temperatures dipping into the low-50’s to upper-40’s by Thursday and Friday of next week, even at the coast. By contrast, the European model is suggesting that low temperatures late next week will run in the upper-50’s to low-60’s. Both models do agree that a spell of wetter and cooler weather will set in and linger next week.

6-10 Day Temperature Probability Outlook
6-10 Day Precipitation Probability Outlook
48 Hour Day 6-7 QPF

Looking even further ahead long-term projections suggest cooler than normal weather for Halloween, giving the holiday a distinctly fall flavor! Normally, temperatures on Halloween in Galveston range from a low of 64° to a high of 77°. My guess is that we will see conditions somewhat cooler than that for any outdoor activities that evening.

Stan Blazyk is a life-long weather enthusiast, long-time Galveston resident and author of "A Century of Galveston Weather." He has written about weather for The Daily News for more than a decade.

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