STAFFORD — The first recorded hurricane warning in history was ignored at great cost. This historical incident established a pattern — one that persists to this day, former National Hurricane Center chief Bill Read said.
The year was 1502, and the forecast was by explorer Christopher Columbus. He told the Spanish governor of Hispaniola to keep his fleet of treasure ships safely in port because rising storm swells suggested the approach of a hurricane.
The governor didn’t heed the warning.
“The ships sank,” Read said. “And so it began.”
Read, who is KPRC-TV’s resident hurricane expert, and other meteorologists are still issuing such cautions for coastal residents each year. Read, the keynote speaker Wednesday at the 25th Hurricane Symposium in Stafford, explained just how bad things could get.
“You’re basically living in a very hurricane-threatened zone,” Read said. “Even if you didn’t flood in Ike, remember that wasn’t the worst possible scenario. For instance, a Category 3 or 4 storm striking at San Luis Pass would send waves over the seawall, flood the Bay side and put Clear Lake well under water.”
For the future, he’s a backer of the Ike Dike proposal, which, if successful would offer a floodgate barrier of protection for much of the area. But for now, it’s best to be ready and willing to run.
“The key for the county is to evacuate away from the surge, even if you can’t escape the wind,” he said. “As for the West End and Bolivar, you’re still as vulnerable as ever. Now is the time to get prepared. Your elected officials and emergency managers get this, so when they tell you to do something, please do it.”
Impact Weather’s Chris Hebert agreed that Ike was not the worst storm possible.
Hebert said: “Ike struck the eastern end of Galveston Island. If it had struck nearer San Luis Pass, then Texas City would have completely gone underwater — 8 or 9 feet deep. We’d look like New Orleans (during Hurricane Katrina) — with Webster, League City, Dickinson and Clear Lake submerged. Water might extend as far as I-45 on the southeast side of Houston.”
These theoretical projections encompass 1 million residents on the Upper Texas Coast. Hebert, who is Impact’s lead hurricane forecaster, said that the challenge of convincing residents to evacuate in a timely manner remains unsolved.
“If you listen, you can get out in time and not wait to see if you can be rescued later,” Hebert said.
Symposium emcee Frank Billingsley of KPRC-TV offered a further caution to business owners.
“The Insurance Information Institute tells us that 40 percent of businesses affected by natural disasters never reopen,” he told the audience of emergency managers and planners.
The recently issued hurricane season forecasts from Colorado State University, AccuWeather and The Weather Channel all agree that 2014 is predicted to be a relatively quiet year for Atlantic tropical storms and hurricanes, but experts at the symposium said such pronouncements should not affect local plans and preparations, since one landfall is enough to ruin anyone’s day.
Rick Cousins can be reached at firstname.lastname@example.org.
The story of the first airborne “hurricane hunter”
On July 27, 1943, a Navy instructor pilot and observer deliberately flew into a Category 2 hurricane as the storm crossed Ellington Field, just north of the Galveston County line. Contemporary wisdom had it that the aircraft of the day were unsafe when it came to passing through even a garden-variety thunderstorm, so navigating into a hurricane was never a sane option, whatever the stakes. Still, flying their single-engine, training aircraft from the Naval Air Station at Bryan-College, the pair succeeded, though not in any effort to boldly make history. The first-ever aerial intercept of a tropical cyclone was instead just an attempt to win a bar bet with their service buddies.
Source: Bill Read.
Bill Read will be at the annual Hurricane Preparedness Town Hall Meeting at 5 p.m. May 28 at the Island Community Center, 4700 Broadway in Galveston.