High pressure over Texas and the Southwest, high pressure to the east and a frontal boundary and low pressure over the Plains are likely to bring us a sunny, breezy and warm weekend. While the surf may be a little rough, it should be a good weekend overall for outdoor activities if you do not mind the heat and humidity.
Despite the tranquil weather here, focus will remain on a broad area of disturbed weather over the Caribbean Sea. The National Hurricane Center is giving this area a 60% chance of developing over the coming 5-days. The latest forecast models suggest the formation of a broad area of low pressure near the Yucatan in 2-3 days.
What happens beyond that is an open question at this time. The main factors influencing development and movement of this system appear to be: 1) the location and strength of upper-level high pressure over the West and over the Atlantic and eastern Gulf of Mexico; 2) the placement of an upper-level low/trough over the central or western Gulf of Mexico; and 3) where a center of low pressure forms, especially in relation to the above two factors and a belt of high wind shear over much of the Caribbean Sea. All of these will impact the track and intensity of any system that does develop.
Since any development is expected to be slow, this should have no impact on our weekend. Still, it will be wise to monitor the situation, heed information from the National Hurricane Center and Houston-Galveston National Weather Service and to make sure that you do have plans in place for the season.