A weak cold front sagging southward over Texas and an upper-level trough and low moving into the southern Plains may bring some rain to the county over the next day or two. A storm complex and squall has reformed over North Texas this morning and could track south to the coast by later today or this evening.
Residual instability and outflow boundaries (cool air flowing outward from thunderstorm complexes), may keep rain in our picture through tomorrow. High pressure and somewhat drier air may put an end to our rain chances by Wednesday.
It will be good if we can get some rain with this system, because the long-term models have been somewhat on the dry side for June. The latest 8-14 Day Precipitation Outlook from the Climate Prediction Center continues to call for very dry conditions over southeast Texas.
The one outlier in this scenario is the GFS Model, which continues to show tropical development in the northwest Caribbean Sea by late this weekend. It eventually sends the system north into the Gulf of Mexico, taking it (varying from model run to model run) either toward the Mobile area, or westward toward the Texas Coast as high pressure blocks its northward movement.
This outlook has to be viewed as highly speculative so far out in time. Still, it is a reminder that the hurricane season is here and that we should all have plans by now on what we will do in case a tropical system heads in our direction.