This weekend’s cold front brought the chilliest weather of the season so far. In fact, the 37 degree low in League City on Saturday was the coldest temperature at that location since Jan. 29 (thanks in part to abnormally warm weather in February and March), while the 49 degree low in Galveston was the coldest there since Jan. 30.
Despite the short spell of cold weather, October 2017 will probably go into the record books as the fifth or sixth warmest October since observations began in 1871.
With a pattern change in the picture, the first part of November seems destined to mirror October with warmer than normal conditions through the first two weeks of the month. A switch to a more zonal west to east flow is likely to keep any significant cold air bottled up well to our north.
Likewise, rain chances (as well as temperatures) will be creeping up as we move into mid-week. A cold front is likely to move into Southeast Texas before stalling near or north of Galveston County. At the same time, a surge of deep Gulf moisture will reach the area. These two factors, combined with an upper-low to the west and a weak upper-level disturbance will like bring rain to the county by Tuesday and Wednesday.
Right now, the chances for rain appear to be modest for Tuesday evening, so Trick-or-Treaters may not be out of luck (though I cannot guarantee that). But, Wednesday looks to be quite rainy with amounts of 1-2 inches possible.
High pressure should build back over the area by the weekend, lowering rain chances, but guaranteeing muggy and more summer-like weather. In other words, fall may be here, but summer is not quite ready to relinquish its hold on the area.