An upper-level low and trough to our east should result in increasing clouds and a good chance for rain on Friday. The rain and clouds will be slow to move out on Saturday, but seasonably chilly temperatures and sunshine are likely by Sunday.

Meanwhile, some people have asked me about Christmas weather. Any forecast that far ahead is bound to be somewhat speculative, nevertheless long-term models have been presenting a fairly consistent outlook for the period leading up to Christmas Day.

In short, a large mass of very cold air is expected to build over Canada over the coming week and a half. Models have been fairly steadfast in having this cold Arctic air plunge into the center of the county during the weekend and early week leading up to Christmas Eve. While, there have been some differences on timing and whether the bulk of the cold air will be mostly off to our east or further west, they generally have been pointing to some rather cold conditions over Texas leading up to Christmas Day.

While this is speculative, it would not surprise me if it eventually unfolds as projected, given the rather chilly weather pattern we have been seeing of late. At any rate, I will bring further updates as we get closer to the Christmas Holiday.

Below are some links related to this blog:

NWS graphic on Friday rain

1-2 day precipitation outlook

Temperature outlook for Canada and Alaska

GFS Model forecast map in 10 days

Stan Blazyk is a life-long weather enthusiast, long-time Galveston resident and author of "A Century of Galveston Weather." He has written the weather blog for the Galveston County Daily News for more than a decade.

(5) comments

Lars Faltskog

Holiday Forecast: dreary, misty, foggy, chilly, damp.

I don't normally gamble, but I'd bet the farm on this.

Lars Faltskog

Now, I see we are reading that by Winter Solstice, SE Texas might have the coldest weather since 1989. Hope not. If so, "oops there goes another rubber tree", frozen pipes, and all that will occur.

Lew Fincher

Please keep us posted Stan.

Gary Miller

I'm curious.
Does anyone keep track of how many degrees above or below average we are. If our average high for this time of year is around 65 degrees I calculate we are hundreds of degrees below average for this month.

Stan Blazyk Staff
Stan Blazyk

IHOG. We are currently running 5.6 degrees below normal which, depending on what happens over the second half of December, should put us on track for the coolest December since either 2009 or 2000. Still, we have not had any freezes yet on the Island and only one day with a light freeze at League City.

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