This is the time of year when rain is less likely to be the result of mid-latitude events (cold fronts, low pressure troughs and so on) and more likely to appear as the result of tropical weather systems.
With dry, hot weather settling into Southeast Texas, we begin looking to the Tropics for some form of relief. As of today, it appears that this may be our best bet for our next round of precipitation.
A fairly weak tropical wave, accompanied by a fairly decent surge of moisture, is moving across the Lesser Antilles this morning. Long-term models are suggesting that this deeper moisture will fill into the Gulf of Mexico in about 6-10 days. They are also suggesting that this may result in a decent chance of rain for our area.
Before then, we could see some chance of rain appear by the early or middle part of next week. This will be the result of an upper-level low pressure trough moving across the center of the country. Beyond that, a better chance of rain will appear by late next week or early the following week as the deep moisture settles into the area.
Fortunately, most forecast models are suggesting that we will not see organized tropical activity of any significance, as strong wind shear aloft should provide an unfavorable environment. Still, this wave may be the first of the season to make an impact in our area.
Below are links related to this blog. The first is a moving image of precipitable water levels (a good measure of the overall moisture content) in the Tropics. The anticipated surge of moisture clearly shows up in the dark red color approaching the Lesser Antilles.