Sunday’s and Monday’s high temperatures of 83° in Galveston respectively tied for the all-time daily record highs for those dates. Meanwhile, League City-Dickinson sweltered in 88° heat as November temperatures run 13.5° warmer than would be expected at that location for the first week of November.

These readings led me to look closer at the long time records for Galveston, where observations go back 145 years to 1871. What I found astonished me. 23 of the 30 daily high November temperature records for Galveston have occurred in the 27 years since 1990, while only 7 occurred in the 118 years prior to that. Looking conversely, at the coldest maximum’s (daily highs) again highlighted this pattern, with 25 of the 30 coldest maximums occurring prior to 1990 and only 7 since then. A quick statistical analysis of this revealed that the possibility of this pattern of events occurring by chance or as a result of random fluctuations is near zero.

Meanwhile, there is a change in the picture for those getting a little weary of our record-breaking autumn warmth. A cool front should move through Galveston County tonight and be off the coast by tomorrow. This will bring back temperatures to a little below normal. We may also see some clouds, windy conditions and light rain tomorrow and tomorrow night as a couple of upper-level disturbances move across the region behind the front.

While temperatures with this front will be only a few degrees below normal, it will be a noticeable change from what we have seen of late. The good news is that another push of cool air on Sunday will keep cool to mild temperatures around though the middle of the next week at least.

Nevertheless, the longer term outlooks still call for above normal temperatures through the weekend before Thanksgiving. On the other hand, temperatures are not expected to climb back to the warm levels we see now with highs generally running in the 70’s. In other words, we may see near ideal Chamber of Commerce weather for the next couple of weeks!

Stan Blazyk is a life-long weather enthusiast, long-time Galveston resident and author of "A Century of Galveston Weather." He has written the weather blog for the Galveston County Daily News for more than a decade.

(3) comments

Steve Fouga

Stan writes: "A quick statistical analysis of this revealed that the possibility of this pattern of events occurring by chance or as a result of random fluctuations is near zero."

I take this to mean that an external forcing function has caused this collection of abnormally high temperatures. Coincidentally, the Trump Administration just claimed that the forcing function is human-caused climate change. [whistling]

Tim Thompson

Right? In other words global warming . . . but we all know this is a pernicious myth perpetrated by Liberals . . . [tongue_smile]

Stan Blazyk Staff
Stan Blazyk

Thanks for the comments. I am of the school of res ipsa loquitor (let the facts speak for themselves).

Welcome to the discussion.

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