A weak cold front should slide through Galveston County late Thursday into Friday. There will be a slight chance of rain along and ahead of the front, but it appears as though most of the rain over the next 2-3 days will remain west of Southeast Texas.

Despite a cool start to the month, temperatures are now running above normal for September at both League City and Galveston and this cool front is unlikely to make much of a dent in this warm weather. What it will do is bring lower humidity levels and cooler nights for Friday through Sunday morning, although afternoon temperatures are likely to average in the mid to upper-80’s due to ample sunshine.

Looking further down the road, deeper moisture will return early next week as winds veer around to the east, a surge of deep tropical moisture reaches the Yucatan and southern Gulf of Mexico, and lower pressure develops in the vicinity of the Yucatan.

Loop showing overall moisture content (precipitable water)

Some models have suggested the possibility of tropical development in that region or the Gulf of Mexico as we move into the later parts of next week. I certainly would not be totally surprised to see this and it would be consistent with typical development patterns for early October.

In any case, rain chances should improve some as we move through the first week of October.

It still appears, however, as though we may need to wait awhile before a really vigorous autumn cold front reaches Southeast Texas.

Stan Blazyk is a life-long weather enthusiast, long-time Galveston resident and author of "A Century of Galveston Weather." He has written the weather blog for the Galveston County Daily News for more than a decade.

(0) comments

Welcome to the discussion.

Keep it Clean. Please avoid obscene, vulgar, lewd, racist or sexually-oriented language.
Don't Threaten. Threats of harming another person will not be tolerated.
Be Truthful. Don't knowingly lie about anyone or anything.
Be Nice. No racism, sexism or any sort of -ism that is degrading to another person.
Be Proactive. Use the 'Report' link on each comment to let us know of abusive posts.
Share with Us. We'd love to hear eyewitness accounts, the history behind an article.