Harvey will make landfall northeast of Corpus Christi in a few hours as a major (Category 3) hurricane with sustained winds of 120-mph. We can expect major damage in areas near the path of the eye as it moves inland. Meanwhile, the Storm Prediction Center has issued a Tornado Watch for much of coastal Texas and Louisiana until 2 am tomorrow morning: http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0465.html

Otherwise, the National Hurricane Center is still sticking with the basic scenario of Hurricane Harvey slowing down and stalling after it moves inland and then drifting back to the northeast or east as an organized, but weakened (as far as winds go) tropical storm. One major change is that as of 1 pm CDT, this track is forecast to drift back to the coast or slightly offshore. Fortunately, the forecast still calls for the hurricane to weaken and end up east of Houston by Sunday morning.

As such, the major threat to our area continues to be heavy rains, tropical storm winds, surge levels of 2-4 feet and isolated tornadoes, which are not unusual in the north and east quadrant of these storms. One problem is that heavy rains and tropical storm force winds or wind gusts will be possible through Sunday or Monday, depending on where Harvey stalls and how quickly it slides off to the east or northeast. In one sense, we are seeing a re-run of Tropical Storm Delia “Devious Delia” in 1973, which came ashore and then looped back into the Gulf for a second landfall---except that Harvey is a much stronger and larger system with a landfall further south.

So far, Galveston has seen wind gusts of 41-mph and a couple of squalls have moved through with enough rotation to suggest possible tornado activity. Expect these conditions to linger through Sunday, based on the latest projections. Remember though that the weak steering currents make these projections somewhat speculative!

Stan Blazyk is a life-long weather enthusiast, long-time Galveston resident and author of "A Century of Galveston Weather." He has written the weather blog for the Galveston County Daily News for more than a decade.

(3) comments

Donna Spencer

Hi Stan, Noel here. Is it even remotely possible that Harvey moves further inland and doesn't wrap back around this way ?

Stan Blazyk Staff
Stan Blazyk

We're on the wet side as long as it stays relatively close, we're going to get feeder bands, heavy rain and elevated tides.

George Croix

8 1/2" here at the house since 21:00 hrs Thursday

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