The annual Dickens on the Strand is set for this coming weekend and the weather outlook couldn’t be better unless you are a stickler for authentic London style Christmas weather. High pressure building and a weak cold front building into North Texas should reinforce and maintain the dry, cool to mild conditions that have prevailed of late.

The latest forecasts call for high temperatures ranging from the upper-60’s to the low-70’s for the event with morning lows in the low 60’s. Although we may see a few showers tomorrow when a weak push of cooler air moves in and another chance at rain by Monday, dry weather should prevail for Dickens.

The question that I get asked most often of late is when will be get some rain?

Looking ahead, rain chances will be on the rise beginning next week. An upper-level low pressure trough expected to develop over the West, could end the drought as humid, unstable air returns to the area. While both the two major intermediate term models both develop the trough, a possible low and a significant pattern change, there are considerable differences in timing and development of this feature, which could affect when and how much precipitation we actually receive.

In addition, both models seem to hint at a moderate cooling trend the second and third week of December with a fairly decent push of much cooler air by the middle of next week.

Speaking of cooling, it may take a major switch to much cooler conditions to avoid breaking a major weather record as we end the year. Last week, the Houston-Galveston NWS put together an interesting chart showing how 2017 may turn out to be the warmest year ever observed in Southeast Texas, with observations going back 146 years in Galveston. As it is, November, 2017 will easily go into the record books as one of the top ten warmest November’s ever.

Stan Blazyk is a life-long weather enthusiast, long-time Galveston resident and author of "A Century of Galveston Weather." He has written the weather blog for the Galveston County Daily News for more than a decade.

(2) comments

Gary Miller

It could be the best thing about 'Climate Change'. Milder winters with normal summer highs. Evaporation mostly of ocean waters will limit summer highs. Summer rains could increase more than the high temps.

Stan Blazyk Staff
Stan Blazyk

Actually there is no evidence that evaporation will limit summer highs, especially since they have been steadily rising as the climate warms and the number of 90 degree plus days in places like Galveston and Florida have increased drastically over the past three decades. While our milder winders are nice, the offsets with storm intensities and tidal overflows seemingly negate that advantage for us in the long run.

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