A slowly developing low pressure area  (AL 91) located 125 miles east of Melbourne, Fla., is being given an 80 percent of developing into a tropical depression or tropical storm during the coming 24 to 48 hours. Although the low is currently drifting in a southwest to westerly direction, it should turn northeast during the next couple of days and head towards the coasts of South Carolina and North Carolina.

If the system does develop, it would be first named storm of the 2014 season. Currently, intensity forecast models are suggesting that either the South Carolina or North Carolina coast will have to face a tropical storm during the July 4 holiday weekend.

Needless to say, this is of great concern to officials who must cope with the large number of holiday visitors expected at the coastal barrier islands in that region.

 Meanwhile, closer to home, hot, mostly sunny weather should prevail locally with some increase in clouds and rain chances expected through the July 4 holiday period. I think it is safe to say that local tourism officials are happy that they are not facing the situation their peers will be likely dealing with along the U.S. Southeast coast.

Below are some links related to this blog:

Satellite Image of TD #1

Southeast US Radar Image

Track Model Array

Intensity Model Array

Stan Blazyk is a life-long weather enthusiast, long-time Galveston resident and author of "A Century of Galveston Weather." He has written the weather blog for the Galveston County Daily News for more than a decade.

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