A very dry spring and an intermediate-term outlook that offer little hope for much precipitation is raising severe drought risk for Galveston County as we move towards summer.

Galveston has received only 5.57 inches of rain since Jan. 1, which is less than 33 percent of what would be expected during the first five and one-half months of the year. League City has fared a little better with 8.12 inches of rain recorded since Jan. 1, but that is still less than 50 percent of what we would normally expect. As it stands, Galveston has had the driest Jan. 1 through May 15 since 2006.

Unfortunately, the next seven days promise to offer little in the rain of additional precipitation. There are some signs that the following week may bring some rain, but the models are inconsistent and contradictory about that possibility, so it is hardly the unambiguous outlook we could hope for.

If there is good news, it is that May has continued to run cooler than normal, so at least we are avoiding the additional issue of excess heat compounding the lack of rainfall.

At any rate, I keep hoping that we will see a wetter trend develop as we finish the month.  Unfortunately, I do not see that yet!

Below are links related to this blog:

Latest Texas Drought Monitor Map

Seven Day Precipitation Outlook

Stan Blazyk is a life-long weather enthusiast, long-time Galveston resident and author of "A Century of Galveston Weather". He has written the weather blog for the Galveston County Daily News for more than a decade.

(4) comments

Steve Fouga

We're planning the transition to xeric at the Buckner household.

Stan Blazyk
Stan Blazyk

May become a trend?

Carlos Ponce

Yes, but when it rains, it pours. According to your article "Season forecasts and the coming hurricane season " GDN Saturday, April 19, 2014, Dale Link is projecting a hurricane landfall on the upper-Texas coast or Louisiana coast this season.

Stan Blazyk
Stan Blazyk

True, a landfall would make for some substantial rainfall, but that forecast was highly speculative. I wouldn't hang my hat on it at this point in time. I do expect the season to get off to an early start, however, based upon what I have seeing in the long-term model projections for early June. We shall see.

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