With mild weather and plenty of sunshine, it should come as no surprise that the first 15 days of November have given us much warmer and drier conditions than normal. Temperatures in League City are averaging a whopping 7.8 degrees above normal through the first half of this month and they are running 4.9 degrees warmer than normal in Galveston.

Likewise, with an inch or less of rain measured over most of the county this month, we are running 2 inches below normal in Galveston and 1 ½ inches below in League City.

Despite the mild spell, a fairly robust cold front will bring seasonally cooler temperatures and breezy conditions to the county by Saturday and Sunday. High temperatures will only reach the 60s behind the front, giving the area more typical mid- to late November weather. There will be a slight chance of showers as the front nears, but amounts should be fairly minimal.

Taking a chance and looking further ahead at Thanksgiving. The early outlook is for fairly good weather for next Thursday and Friday. A pattern change will bring a more amplified upper-level flow to the mid-section of a country, as opposed to the mostly west to east flow we have been seeing.

This more amplified pattern should allow another front to reach the coast around late Tuesday or Wednesday of next week, although current projections are not calling for too drastic a drop in temperature. In addition, a trough moving though the center of the country may give us a better shot at rain as the front moves through.

Seven day precipitation outlook

Looking even further ahead, most intermediate range forecasts are calling for mostly sunny and mild weather to persist through the Holiday weekend. In other words, weather for the entire Thanksgiving weekend looks fairly good at this point in time.

Stan Blazyk is a life-long weather enthusiast, long-time Galveston resident and author of "A Century of Galveston Weather." He has written the weather blog for the Galveston County Daily News for more than a decade.

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