It is now time to switch from watching the eclipse to the locally least favorite late summer pastime —watching the Gulf of Mexico for tropical activity.

Although the remnants of former Tropical Storm Harvey are disorganized with no clear center of circulation as a result of unfavorable wind conditions over the past two days and the current interaction with the landmass of the Yucatan, re-development of the system is expected when it reaches the southern Gulf of Mexico and Bay of Campeche.

Of more interest to the Upper-Texas coast is the fact that forecast models have been increasingly trending northward. In contrast to prior outlooks which foresaw landfall on the Mexican coasts, the latest forecasts suggest landfall anywhere from near Brownsville to the middle Texas coast. A few models are now even favoring a track to the upper-Texas coast.

While there is plenty of time to get more clarity regarding the future of this system, one thing seems increasingly probable---that the Galveston area will see some impacts in the form of higher tides and increased rain chances. Exactly what that will mean is still open to question, but it is certain that it will be wise to monitor this disturbance and to heed any alerts from the local National Weather Service and/or the National Hurricane Center.

I will be reporting updates as this weather event slowly unfolds.

Forecast track model array

Stan Blazyk is a life-long weather enthusiast, long-time Galveston resident and author of "A Century of Galveston Weather." He has written the weather blog for the Galveston County Daily News for more than a decade.

(3) comments

Ed Matthews

It would be nice to get some needed rain up here by G-town.....Bring it on.

Stan Blazyk Staff
Stan Blazyk

We need rain, but may get more than we bargain for.

Comment deleted.
George Croix

Hey, GDN.
If you're not going to moderate and enforce your own rules, then why have any at all.
Or, is this a free advertising area now......? [wink]

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