Rainfall has been elusive so far this month over Southeast Texas. Galveston has recorded but 0.04 of an inch through the first 10 days of the month — 10 percent of normal. League City has fared a little better with 0.46 of an inch for the month. But even that is less than half of what would be expected through April 10.

What is disappointing is that the models were initially calling for a wetter pattern. Unfortunately, the spring-time cap (layer of warm air aloft) proved more resilient than expected and the last round of rains barely dampened the county. Our next chance of rain should appear around Sunday or Monday as an upper-level system tracks across the center of the country and a spring cold front pushes into Southeast Texas. It is not clear, at this point, that we will have any more luck with this system as the best chances for rain appear to be off to our north.

If there is any good news, it is that overall soil moisture improved somewhat over Southeast Texas over the past month, in contrast to Central Texas where the drought worsened. Trying to be an optimist, I could point to the longer term GFS model, which suggests a better chance for rain for the later part of the month. On the other hand, if I were a pessimist, I would note that this same model called for more rain with our last system and missed the mark.

At any rate, we do need some rain over the coming two weeks, or we will see the drought intensifying as we head into May.

Texas Drought Monitor Map from the Houston-Galveston NWS

Three day precipitation outlook

Seven-day precipitation outlook

Stan Blazyk is a life-long weather enthusiast, long-time Galveston resident and author of "A Century of Galveston Weather". He has written the weather blog for the Galveston County Daily News for more than a decade.

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