The first weekend of Mardi Gras festivities kicks off on Friday night with a host of parades and parties. A number of people have been asking about what kind of weather is likely for the events this weekend.

In contrast to a couple of days ago, the outlook is for somewhat cooler conditions with a modest threat of rain. The culprit will be a cold front expected to reach the coast sometime on Friday. Fortunately, the air mass is not anticipated to replicate the frigid weather seen earlier this month, so temperatures should primarily remain in the 50s and 60s for the weekend. An upper-level disturbance tracking across the region, combined with the front lingering offshore in the Gulf of Mexico, may lead to some rain on Saturday and Sunday. Otherwise, conditions do not look too bad, especially given the weather for much of this winter.

We have to get a little more speculative when we look ahead to the second weekend of Mardi Gras. Another cold front should move through southeast Texas around Monday of next week, with colder air filtering into our area by Thursday and Friday. This air mass may be somewhat chillier than the one this Friday, so coats and jackets may definitely be needed for this event. Rain gear may also be needed for that Sunday, if the longer term forecasts hold. Again, we may be fortunate in that even this round of cold air won’t quite match what we’ve seen earlier this winter.

Overall, I would say it is a mixed, though not too dismal, outlook. We should have a better idea about weather for the second weekend as we get somewhat closer in time. Meanwhile, expect the scattered areas of fog to continue off and on for the next few days.

Below are some links related to this blog:

Fog graphic from Houston-Galveston NWS

Day 3 surface forecast map

Day 4 surface forecast map

Days 4-5 precipitation outlook

Days 6-7 precipitation outlook

Stan Blazyk is a life-long weather enthusiast, long-time Galveston resident and author of "A Century of Galveston Weather." He has written the weather blog for the Galveston County Daily News for more than a decade.

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