Dan Reilly at the Houston-Galveston NWS led a Webinar a little while ago where he reported on the system in the Gulf of Mexico. Unfortunately, we are still looking at a very uncertain scenario regarding the development and track of an elongated low (Invest 93) over the southern and central Gulf of Mexico. Although aircraft found some tropical force winds, they were well east of the center of lowest pressure, as was most of the rain associated with the system. Wind shear is causing disorganization and displacement of much of the worst weather to the east.
As to what to look for this afternoon and evening, the National Hurricane Center may issue either a Tropical Storm Watch or Warning later today, under a new process that allows them to do so even before a named system develops. What sections of the northern or western Gulf of Mexico are covered under this watch will be one clue as to where the more significant impacts of the system are most likely.
The models continue to be split between those that take it into Louisiana or points east and those that hint at a landfall along the mid to upper-Texas coast. As was pointed out in the Webinar, a landfall to the east would result in lesser impacts in tide levels, rainfall and wind force, while a landfall on the Texas coast to our left (south) would result in higher impacts. A lot depends on how an upper-low over the Gulf and a high pressure system to the east interact and impact the movement of the system.
So, while we are continuing to wait for more clarity, it is still wise to make sure that we are prepared for the more significant possible impacts. At the present time, impacts would be most noticeable in our area from late Wednesday into Thursday or Friday, depending on the track, speed and size of the system.
In any case, I will blog again as soon as there are any changes with this weather event.