The past few days have seen periods of dense fog, light rains and temperatures seesawing between bouts of chilly weather and somewhat milder conditions. The weather pattern promoting these fluctuations will likely persist at least through early next week.

Unfortunately, this may not favor the numerous outdoor activities planned in the County for the second weekend of Mardi Gras. Dense fog, light showers, some sunshine and relatively mild temperatures today will give way to a fairly robust push of colder air, likely to reach the coast by late tonight or early tomorrow. The front, combined with weak upper-level disturbances, will give us a good chance and some showers and thunderstorms as the front plows into relatively moist air near the coast.

While a quick warm-up on Thursday and early Friday may bring respite from the rain and even a glimpse of sunshine, before clouds and rain chances increase late Friday through Sunday, with another cold front due to reach the coast on Saturday or Sunday.

Timing of the front currently remains somewhat speculative. As a result, when and how much rain we do get this weekend could determine whether Mardi Gras events are mostly a wash-out or turn out to be a little more favorable for participants. In any case, some rain appears very likely in the late Friday through Saturday time frame.

7 day precipitation outlook

On the other hand, rain or not, I suspect the more ardent Mardi Gras frolickers will be out this weekend, wet or dry, cold or mild!

Stan Blazyk is a life-long weather enthusiast, long-time Galveston resident and author of "A Century of Galveston Weather." He has written the weather blog for the Galveston County Daily News for more than a decade.

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