A heat advisory has been issued again today for the counties along the upper-Texas coast. While the mercury is generally are not expected to rise above the mid-90’s nor topple any daily high temperature records, a combination of intense August heat and high humidity levels will inhibit vigorous outdoor activities
Looking down the road some, the heat is expected to persist through early next week at least. For Wednesday, a weak disturbance may bring an increased chance of showers and some relief. Beyond that, however, an upper-level high pressure ridge will establish itself firmly over most of Texas and surrounding areas. Humidity levels may actually decrease some over the next few days, but temperatures will continue to reach the mid to upper-90’s over most areas.
Speaking of heat, the Tropics continue to be more active. Currently, two systems in the west-central and central Tropical Atlantic have some chance of development over the coming five days. The closet system is a tropical wave that will approach the Lesser Antilles in a few days. It currently has a 30% chance of developing during the coming 48-hours and a 40% chance of developing over the next five days. Further east, a second tropical wave is given a 10% chance of developing in the next 24-48 hours and a 20% chance over the coming five days.
What made me pay attention to these disturbances is a GFS Model (also known as the American model) run this morning had one of these developing in the Gulf of Mexico and making landfall near Galveston as a major hurricane. The noon run of this model, shifted east and has it moving ashore near New Orleans (still too close for comfort for me). Fortunately, other modes such as the ECMWF (the European model) and NAVGEM (the Navy model) have the system taking a more northwesterly track north of Puerto Rico and towards the Bahamas , and possibly, Florida.
It must be noted that any projections this far out are highly speculative. But they are a reminder that even a “quiet” hurricane season can pack some punch.
Below are links related to this blog:
Heat Advisory map
Day 3-7 Upper-level forecast map
National Hurricane Center five day graphical outlook