A heat advisory has been issued again today for the counties along the upper-Texas coast.  While the mercury is generally are not expected to rise above the mid-90’s nor  topple any daily high temperature records, a combination of intense August heat and high humidity levels will inhibit vigorous outdoor activities

Looking down the road some, the heat is expected to persist through early next week at least. For Wednesday, a weak disturbance may bring an increased chance of showers and some relief. Beyond that, however, an upper-level high pressure ridge will establish itself firmly over most of Texas and surrounding areas. Humidity levels may actually decrease some over the next few days, but temperatures will continue to reach the mid to upper-90’s over most areas.

Speaking of heat, the Tropics continue to be more active. Currently, two systems in the west-central and central Tropical Atlantic have some chance of development over the coming five days. The closet system is a tropical wave that will approach the Lesser Antilles in a few days. It currently has a 30% chance of developing during the coming 48-hours and a 40% chance of developing over the next five days. Further east, a second tropical wave is given a 10% chance of developing in the next 24-48 hours and a 20% chance over the coming five days.

What made me pay attention to these disturbances is a GFS Model (also known as the American model) run this morning had one of these developing in the Gulf of Mexico and making landfall near Galveston as a major hurricane. The noon run of this model, shifted east and has it moving ashore near New Orleans (still too close for comfort for me). Fortunately, other modes such as the ECMWF (the European model) and NAVGEM (the Navy model) have the system taking a more northwesterly track north of Puerto Rico and towards the Bahamas , and possibly, Florida.

It must be noted that any projections this far out are highly speculative. But they are a reminder that even a “quiet” hurricane season can pack some punch.

Below are links related to this blog:

Heat Advisory map

Heat Advisory map

Day 3-7 Upper-level forecast map

Day 3-7 Upper-level forecast map

National Hurricane Center five day graphical outlook

National Hurricane Center five day graphical outlook

Stan Blazyk is a life-long weather enthusiast, long-time Galveston resident and author of "A Century of Galveston Weather." He has written the weather blog for the Galveston County Daily News for more than a decade.

(4) comments

Steve Fouga

Stan, is there a way for the average citizen to view the GFS, NAVGEM, and other model results online? I occasionally run across the model tracks, but it's usually at a recognized news site, and after a storm is already well-established. I'd like to see the the raw model tracks for myself, and earlier in the development of a storm. I tried the National Hurricane Center site, but if the model tracks are there, I couldn't find them.

Thanks!

Ellen Morrison

Jake, I find that the darn things are scattered all over the place. You can get the basic info on NHC when there are AOI, but you can get track info at Weather Underground.
http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/?index_region=at

You can also get more info from Dr. Jeff Masters blog, which is updated just about every day during hurricane season:
http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/show.html

Dr. Master's blog has a very (VERY) active forum, as well. You can find the usual trolls, but the majority of the participants are very well-informed. And if you don't want to read them, you will find that at least they post all the important things in a timely fashion.

And Storm W. has another blog that you may find of interest:
http://stormw.wordpress.com/

Stan Blazyk Staff
Stan Blazyk

A good place for the general public to get GFS model runs is from tropical tidbits (just type the name into a search engine and it should show up). You can get NAVGEM from this site: http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/metoc/nogaps/index.html and you can get a variety of model forecast maps from this site: http://meteocentre.com/models/get_anim.php?mod=gfs&run=12&stn=PNM&map=na〈=en

Steve Fouga

Thanks, Emmy and Stan. Dynamite info!

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